An extensive zone of instability is currently developing south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. This is associated with the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), which has been gradually gaining latitude as we approach the summer. Early forecasts suggest that this could be the first tropical disturbance of the season.
The disturbance is expected to move slowly north, nearing the border of Mexico and Central America by Friday. As the weekend approaches, it's predicted that the zone of instability will shift parallel to the Mexican coasts. The extensive circulation of the disturbance could begin to destabilize weather conditions in several areas.
The United States National Hurricane Center has indicated a 30% chance of cyclonic development over the weekend. If the system intensifies, it could potentially reach the strength of a tropical storm or even a category 1 hurricane. This would primarily affect the southern coast of Mexico and the western part of Central America. Therefore, it's crucial to monitor its progression.
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