“Tropical Storm Alert: Cyclone Beryl Threatens Yucatan Peninsula!”
The Yucatan Peninsula and southeast parts of the country are expected to experience continued heavy rainfall due to two tropical waves, one of which has a 90% likelihood of developing into cyclone "Beryl," according to the United States National Hurricane Center (CNH). The nearer tropical wave has a slim chance of becoming a cyclone, but it could bring torrential rain to the region, so residents are advised to take precautions.
Vigorous Tropical Wave Approaching Yucatan Peninsula
Meteorologist Juan Antonio Palma Solís, coordinator of Meteored, described a strong tropical wave traversing Central America and the western Caribbean in a social media video. This wave is interacting with a trough, leading to increased cloudiness and storms. It is moving westward with a 30% chance of developing into a cyclonic system, but it is expected to bring heavy rain to Central America, the Yucatan Peninsula, and the southeast of the country.
Solís predicts that this wave will cross over the weekend and interact with other weather phenomena, leading to intense, possibly torrential, rainfall.
Where Will the Heaviest Rainfall Occur?
Areas like Quintana Roo, still recovering from recent floods, could see daily rainfall exceeding 100mm, particularly in eastern and southern Yucatan and Central Campeche. Solís advises residents to take precautions due to the potential damage this rainfall could cause.
When Will Cyclone "Beryl" Form?
The tropical system in the Atlantic has a 90% chance of developing into a cyclone, so it is likely that tropical storm "Beryl" will form this weekend. Solís suggests that it could enter the Caribbean early next week and may pose a threat to Central America, the Yucatan Peninsula, or the Antilles. The forecast suggests it will reach the Caribbean as a cyclone, but whether it will be a storm or a hurricane is still unknown. The exact path of this phenomenon will only become clear next weekend.
What are the Chances of a Cyclone Forming?
The United States National Hurricane Center's 8 p.m. report on Thursday stated that a broad area of low pressure over the western Caribbean Sea is causing widespread but disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This system is moving west-northwest at about 15 miles per hour (24 kilometers per hour) and could develop over the northwest Caribbean Sea or the southwest Gulf of Mexico in the next few days.
- Chance of formation in 48 hours: 20%
- Chance of formation in 7 days: 30%
The report also noted a tropical wave several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde islands that continues to cause showers and thunderstorms.