Impending Cyclone Threat and Heavy Rain Forecast

"Alberto", the first tropical cyclone of the 2024 season, is moving away from the Yucatan Peninsula. Predictions suggest the storm will hit the border of Tamaulipas and Veracruz as a tropical storm early tomorrow. However, stormy conditions are expected to persist in the region.

While "Alberto" will soon lose its influence, the Central American Gyre will remain and likely induce a new tropical disturbance. This disturbance is predicted to move towards the south of the Gulf of Mexico over the weekend, similar to recent weather patterns.

The center of this new disturbance is not expected to pass directly over the Yucatan Peninsula. Instead, its position will place the Yucatan Peninsula in the convergence zone of moisture bands from the Pacific Ocean and the Caribbean Sea. This means rainfall is expected to continue throughout the week.

Forecasts indicate that from now until Sunday, intense to torrential scattered rains could occur across much of Quintana Roo, as well as very strong to intense rains in Tabasco. These heavy rainfalls could lead to severe waterlogging and flooding in vulnerable areas. It's crucial to follow the recommendations of local authorities during this time.

In addition to heavy rain, winds are expected to reach between 20 to 50 km/h in the Yucatan Peninsula, with gusts of over 60 km/h over the open sea. This is due to a pressure gradient between a persistent high pressure over the northeastern United States and the new tropical disturbance. If this disturbance evolves into a tropical storm, it will be named "Beryl".

However, not all news about the rains is negative. The constant cloud cover will prevent intense heat from returning to the region. Over the next few days, maximum temperatures are expected to range from 28 °C to 34 °C in Yucatan, Campeche and Tabasco, and between 26 °C to 30 °C in Quintana Roo.

Finally, weather forecasts suggest that rainfall will decrease in intensity and distribution starting next week. However, this does not mean it will end. In fact, a series of tropical waves may begin, which along with the "Mayan Trough" and the persistent arrival of tropical maritime air, would maintain the likelihood of precipitation in the region.