The Yucatan has been experiencing intense heat for several days. However, the upcoming weekend may bring some relief in the form of rainfall. Meteorologist Juan Antonio Palma Solís, Coordinator of Meteored, suggests that the weather patterns for the start of the rainy season will likely begin in the last week of May.
"From then on, the extreme heat should start to decrease and rainfall should start to normalize," Solís explains. Predictions suggest that the extensive anticyclone currently covering the region will persist in the coming days, keeping temperatures high and conditions dry, with minimal rainfall.
However, Solís does not rule out the possibility of sporadic rainfall over the weekend.
"From around May 27, a shift in atmospheric patterns in the region could begin, signaling the start of the rainy season," he says. The anticyclone is expected to start moving north from that point, no longer affecting the peninsular region and Central America, and allowing for the dominance of troughs and atmospheric instability.
"From the last week of May, storm activity may intensify over the Caribbean and Central America. This weather pattern would gradually start to affect the southeastern states of the country and the Yucatan Peninsula."
Solís also suggests the potential development of a Central American monsoon shift or the formation of a tropical disturbance in the Caribbean that could develop into a cyclone. He notes that the first tropical wave of the season from Africa has not yet been observed, but these weather systems in the Atlantic could begin to move around June.
Forecasts also suggest that by the end of May, there will be an expansion in the Atlantic anticyclonic ridge at low levels of the troposphere. This change would accelerate the flow of trade winds over the Caribbean and intensify the arrival of more humid air across the region, a pattern typical of the rainy season.
Solís does not rule out some transient precipitation before the last week of May. However, he emphasizes that the atmospheric conditions characteristic of the start of the rainy season will become more apparent from May 27 onwards.
"The end of this period of historic heat and severe drought is nearing. We are moving towards one of the most intense predicted rainy and cyclone seasons," Solís concludes.
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