Yucatán on Alert: Tropical Cyclone Threat Looms

A tropical system is currently forming in the Caribbean Sea, with a 40% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone within the next week. The Civil Protection of Yucatán is monitoring the system closely due to its moderate risk, given the favorable atmospheric and oceanic conditions.

The National Meteorological Service (SMN) has issued a preventative notice regarding the possible formation of this tropical system off the coast of Nicaragua. The system is approximately 1,150 kilometers southeast of Yucatán. While the development into a cyclone is not yet confirmed, authorities are keeping a close eye on the system due to its moderate risk.

Regardless of the system's development, Yucatán is expected to experience rainfall of varying intensities from October 3 to October 5. According to forecasts from Yucatán Meteorology, the initial rainfall will primarily affect eastern municipalities, gradually extending to coastal and northwestern areas. Residents in these areas should prepare for heavy rainfall, which could lead to local flooding and waterlogging, particularly in urban areas.

The weather report also emphasizes that the atmospheric and oceanic conditions in early October are conducive to the formation of a tropical system in the region. These conditions include warm sea surface temperatures and atmospheric patterns that could intensify the developing low-pressure system. The situation in the Caribbean waters will be crucial in determining the trajectory and impact of the potential cyclone in southeastern Mexico and the Yucatán Peninsula.

Forecasts for Tuesday, October 2, indicate the arrival of heavy to very heavy rain and thunderstorms across most of the Yucatán Peninsula. This weather event will be influenced by an extensive Central American Gyre, in conjunction with a tropical wave impacting the western region of the peninsula.

Authorities are urging residents to take precautions against the potential for waterlogging and risks associated with water accumulation in streets and avenues. They are also advising residents to heed Civil Protection guidelines. The expected rainfall could reach levels of 50 to 75 mm and may be accompanied by intense electrical activity and gusts, increasing the risk of flash floods.